The hottest portfolios and most eligible suitors

Follow the movers, shakers, and deal-makers in a post-election Europe.
By MAX GRIERA
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Hello all! There are just hours to go until the deadline for EU countries to nominate their commissioner elapses. At the time of writing, just Belgium and Italy are missing. Right before publication, a (minor) miracle happened: Bulgaria became the first country to obey Ursula von der Leyen and nominate one woman and one man. Congratulations! More on that later.  
After all the names are in, it’s time to allocate the portfolios. Von der Leyen should have a final sketch ready before September 11, when she is expected to present the list to the leadership of the European Parliament.  
Everyone is speculating about who will get which job, and so are we! Here’s our take on which are the hottest portfolios and who could get them.  
HIERARCHY: Talks are ongoing within von der Leyen’s transition team to shake up the structure of the College of Commissioners. Last time around she appointed three executive vice-presidents (EVPs) and four vice-presidents (VPs), but it seems she will not repeat that.   
5-6 EVPs and no VPs: Von der Leyen is understood to be keen on removing all the vice-presidents while beefing up the number of executive vice-presidents, our Stuart Lau writes in to say. The commissioners could also be split into five or six ‘clusters’ under the EVPs. 
Potential lineup: According to one senior official close to the planning, those being considered as EVPs include existing EVPs Maroš Šefčovič and Valdis Dombrovskis, current commissioner Thierry Breton, and newcomers Teresa Ribera and Raffaele Fitto (Fitto’s not been officially nominated yet).  
Power balancing: This structure would give von der Leyen some sort of balance. Big countries France, Italy and Spain would be represented at a senior level, while three Central and Eastern Europeans (Šefčovič, Dombrovskis and Kaja Kallas, who’ll also get the Commission VP title because of her role as EU top diplomat) are also in the lineup.  Politically, this structure means the center-right EPP, Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and liberal Renew Europe would each get two officials in the Commission’s leadership, while Giorgia Meloni’s ECR would get one.
IN TERMS OF CONTENT: The only portfolios we know for sure are those she announced during her confirmation speech in July: a vice-president for implementation, simplification and interinstitutional relations; a commissioner for defense; a commissioner whose responsibilities will include housing; a commissioner whose responsibilities will include ensuring intergenerational fairness; a commissioner for equality; a fisheries and oceans commissioner; a commissioner for enlargement; and a commissioner for the Mediterranean.  
COMPETITIVENESS COMPETITION: Everyone wants to be involved in von der Leyen’s plans to boost the EU’s economy. So budget, internal market and industry portfolios are what nominees are fighting over.  
Remember the election campaign: On the left side of the hemicycle, we had politicians calling for more legislation to tackle the climate crisis. On the center and right, we had parties asking for a regulatory pause and to focus on implementation to give Europe’s struggling industry time to implement the Green Deal. But everyone agreed on one thing: the need to boost the EU’s competitiveness. 
An overarching ‘Clean Industry’ gig? These talking points crystallized in what von der Leyen called her “Clean Industrial Deal,” which bridges green ambitions with industrial development. Whoever is running the green industrial policy will have a central role in von der Leyen’s Commission, our Karl Mathiesen reports, as the potential portfolio in charge of it will be a marriage of the Green Deal and her overriding economic and political concern: competitiveness. 
Spain’s Ribera wants a key role: Spain’s deputy prime minister and ecological transition minister, Teresa Ribera, who was expected to land a climate and environment-related portfolio, has tried to woo von der Leyen over the summer in order to get an economic portfolio, according to Spanish media. “She aspires to a vice presidency and a portfolio that will enable the modernization of Europe from an economic, industrial and climate perspective,” diplomats told EFE.  
Other heavyweights interested: French President Emmanuel Macron, though weakened domestically, is still pressuring Brussels to give a “super portfolio” to Thierry Breton, encompassing the internal market, competition and potentially defense, a senior official close to the planning told Stuart.  
In his own words: “Competitiveness is a top priority in President-elect von der Leyen’s political guidelines, with a focus on addressing remaining structural obstacles, including a new approach to competition policy,” Breton told our Giovanna Faggionato when asked about his expectations for a role in the next college.
IN CHARGE OF THE BUDGET: The budget portfolio will be key in the coming years. In the last mandate, the Commission borrowed billions of euros under new funds, especially NextGenerationEU, after Covid-19.  Looking forward, and with a brand-new industrial strategy to be unveiled when the Commission takes office, von der Leyen is already eyeing what she called a “European Competitiveness Fund.” On top of that, Ukraine may need many more billions from the EU to keep its war effort going — and let’s not even talk about the reconstruction that will come after that.  
Those interested: Poland’s Piotr Serafin is one of the frontrunners alongside Italy’s rumored nominee Raffaelle Fitto. Slovenia’s seasoned Tomaž Vesel is also an option.  
SEEMED SEXY BUT NEVERMIND: Amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, defense was one of the hottest topics for months, with each party including in their electoral manifesto plans to boost military spending. Defense was so hyped up that von der Leyen promised to dedicate a whole commissioner post to it, despite the EU not really having competencies over defense policy and there also being a high representative post for foreign affairs matters.  
Reality check: With Kallas picked as the foreign policy chief by heads of state and government, no one — absolutely no one — has expressed interest in being the next commissioner for defense, as POLITICO predicted in June.  
LOOKING BACK AT THE CAMPAIGN: There were three topics that took center-stage after competitiveness and defense: migration, agricultural policy, and — promoted by the liberals, right-wing and far-right parties — the need to clamp down on EU bureaucracy and red tape. These three topics will get their own portfolios, and anyone who gets them is bound to be faced with controversy and accusations from left and right in the coming years.  
EVP for red tape: Von der Leyen has said she will appoint a vice-president for implementation, simplification and interinstitutional relations “to stress-test the entire EU acquis,” and to make proposals to simplify and consolidate legislation. It won’t be an easy job to navigate the whole of the EU’s legislation. And EU countries and half the Parliament will be ready to jump down this person’s throat if they fail to deliver.  
MIGRATION: Whoever takes on the migration portfolio is set to face criticism. Not only will this person have to implement the controversial asylum and migration pact, which no one seems happy about, but they will also need to deal with increasingly divergent views on how to tackle migration among member states. So far, there is no clear candidate for the portfolio.  
Germany vs Spain: The latest example of widening divisions on migration can be seen in Germany and Spain, both led by Socialists. While Germany has hardened migration rhetoric after a knife attack involving an asylum seeker, with both center-right and Socialists calling for more deportations and tougher procedures, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been on a tour of North Africa to discuss “legal emigration entryways,” El Pais reported.  
AGRICULTURE: A highly divisive issue, von der Leyen’s pick for the agriculture portfolio will need to cope with the fights and protests involving political parties and farmers as they decide what direction should EU policy go in. To bridge the gaps, von der Leyen will publish a “Vision for Agriculture and Food” with new measures for the farming sector within the first 100 days of her mandate. The next agriculture commissioner will also need to deal with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform starting next year. Luxembourg’s Christophe Hansen is the top pick, while Cyprus’ Costas Kadis and Portugal’s Maria Luís Albuquerque could be in the frame too.   
NOMINATIONS GALORE. WHO’S MISSING? At the time of writing, two countries had not yet made a pick for their EU commissioner: Belgium and Italy. The latter is due to happen today, and it’ll almost certainly be Raffaele Fitto, the current EU affairs minister. 
Round of applause for Bulgaria: It finally happened! A country nominated a man and a woman to be European commissioner! Plaudits to Bulgaria, which has put forward Ekaterina Zaharieva, foreign minister between 2017 and 2021 and a former minister for justice and for regional development. She’s the pick of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB party (part of the EPP). The other name is Julian Popov, until recently the minister of environment and water.  
Danish pick: Denmark put forward Dan Jørgensen to be part of von der Leyen’s second team. Jørgensen, a social democrat, was minister for climate and energy, and for the last two years has been at the helm of the ministry in charge of development cooperation and global climate policy. 
Portuguese choice: Portugal nominated former finance minister Maria Luís Albuquerque as its next European commissioner. An economist by training with years of experience in her country’s treasury, Albuquerque lost out to her party colleague Carlos Moedas for the nomination as Portuguese commissioner in 2014. 
Spain rubber-stamps name: We’ve known for ages that Madrid was sending Teresa Ribera to Brussels. That was made official this week. Earlier this week, Brussels Playbook wrote her chef de cabinet would be Miguel Gil Tertre, a long-time Commission official and former chief economist at DG ENER.  
GENDER WOES: Von der Leyen’s strategy to get more women nominees, according to two diplomats who spoke to Brussels Playbook, is to entice member countries, especially smaller ones, to put forward alternate names by dangling juicier portfolios if they can come up with female candidates. According to a story in the Times of Malta, she is pressuring the government to replace its current male nominee, Glenn Micallef, with a woman, and is also putting pressure on other countries. 
SOCIALISTS CRY FOUL: The center-left has hit out at a lack of “political balance” in the commissioner ranks. The Socialists could end up with just four commissioners out of 27 (five if you count Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič, whose party was suspended from the Party of European Socialists in October 2023 over rule of law concerns). The EPP is on track to get 15 commissioners — including the president post for von der Leyen herself. Here’s a piece I wrote this week. 
Threat to VDL’s commission stability: René Repasi, head of the German Socialists in Parliament, told POLITICO: “A European Commission that becomes an EPP Working Group runs the risk to lose the support of the pro-European majority in the Parliament.”  
EUROPEAN LEFT COLLAPSES: Some national left-wing parties are set to create a new European party after abandoning the European Left (EL). The new party will be dubbed the European Left Alliance for the People and the Planet (ELA), and represents a split between old-school communist parties and new-wave radical left parties, Brussels Playbook reported.  
RISE OF THE PATRIOTS: After absorbing the majority of members of the now defunct Identity and Democracy, Patriots for Europe will take over ID’s Paris headquarters on Boulevard Haussmann, according to the party statutes (which still need verifying by French authorities). The Brussels representation will be located in Square de Meeûs. 
KALLAS WRAPS UP PREP TOUR: The EU’s next foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, was on her way back to Tallinn on Thursday after a few days of meetings in Brussels with her future staff at the European External Action Service. “She’s solid and she asked a lot of questions,” a senior official with knowledge of the meetings said. Another diplomat, granted anonymity to make this undiplomatic statement, said: “We can’t wait for her to take [Josep] Borrell’s spot. The new energy she brings will be a much-needed change for the EEAS’ dismal image.” For now, Kallas will be busy reading up the notes EEAS officials gave her, to prepare her for the European Parliament hearing, expected to be some time in October. 
Current excitement level: Happy! European Parliament finally reconvenes next week, see you at Mickey Mouse 😉
Last word: “Small countries can be coerced, do you imagine her blackmailing Italy?” an EU diplomat told me when discussing von der Leyen’s strategy to pressure small member states to change their commissioner nominee from a man to a woman.
Thanks to: Paul Dallison, Stuart Lau, Karl Mathiesen, Giovanna Faggionato and Dato Parulava.
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